Confirming Hypothesis vs. Validating Hypothesis in Startups
In the context of startups and customer-discovery interviews, confirming and validating a hypothesis are two different steps in the process of building a successful business model.
Confirming a Hypothesis
Confirmation means checking if the data or feedback aligns with the initial assumption. It is more about finding evidence that supports your hypothesis.
Example:
- Hypothesis: “Customers prefer a mobile app over a web app for managing their finances.”
- Customer-Discovery Interview Question: “Do you currently use any mobile apps for managing your finances? If so, what features do you find most useful?”
- Confirmation: If a majority of customers respond positively, indicating they use and prefer mobile apps for finance management, you have confirmation that your hypothesis is on the right track.
Validating a Hypothesis
Validation goes a step further. It involves testing the hypothesis through real-world experimentation and rigorous data analysis to ensure it is true and reliable. Validation often requires more comprehensive evidence and may involve multiple rounds of testing and iteration.
Example:
- Hypothesis: “Customers prefer a mobile app over a web app for managing their finances.”
- Validation Process:
- Develop a prototype of the mobile app.
- Release it to a group of beta testers.
- Track usage metrics, collect feedback, and measure engagement levels compared to a web app prototype.
- Analyze data to see if the mobile app consistently performs better in terms of user satisfaction, retention, and frequency of use.
- Validation: If the data shows that the mobile app significantly outperforms the web app in all these areas, then you have validated your hypothesis.
Key Differences
- Scope and Depth: Confirmation is typically a preliminary step, relying on customer feedback and initial responses. Validation is a more in-depth process that includes developing prototypes, testing in real-world scenarios, and analyzing comprehensive data.
- Evidence: Confirmation requires some evidence to support the hypothesis, whereas validation requires robust, repeatable evidence to prove the hypothesis is true under various conditions.
- Process: Confirmation can often be achieved through interviews and surveys. Validation involves real-world experimentation, product testing, and detailed data analysis.
Summary
- Confirming Hypothesis: Gathering initial evidence to see if customer feedback supports your assumption.
- Validating Hypothesis: Rigorous testing and data analysis to prove your hypothesis is reliable and true in real-world scenarios.
Example Recap:
- Confirming Hypothesis: Positive feedback from customer interviews about the preference for mobile apps.
- Validating Hypothesis: Developing a mobile app, testing it with users, and analyzing the data to prove that it consistently meets customer needs better than a web app.
